Archives for May 2016

The world’s most famous horse race The Kentucky Derby 142 at Churchill Downs opens it’s starting gate on Sat, May 7th at 6:34pm est. Set your watches accordingly!

New Fan, Novice Horseplayers Allowed To Win Now

The unique Rogue Ratings computer program projections allow the new fan or novice horseplayers to learn and win at betting on the ponies now, without having to spend years or decades to do it as was required in the past!

As the ratings are presented in a simple outline to better understand a race and at the same time gives the new horseplayer sophisticated calculations that puts in their hands a level of proficiency that is far beyond their actual years of study and  mastery, which now allows the new bettors to win money betting the horses right out of the gate!

Rogue Ratings Projected Derby 142 Plays

Rogue Ratings projections point to these four (4) horses to run well in the Derby and that one of them to hit the finish-line first:

RR’s Kentucky Derby Pars – RR’s Velocity Par 70/ Early Speed Par 87 (avg rogue ratings #’s of winners)

• #20-Dancing Candy (15-1) *S* [Speed Horse]  157/ 101
• #18-Majesto (30-1) *R2* [Rogue Squared Horse]  201/ 91
• #5-Gun Runner (10-1) *R2* [Rogue Squared Horse]  198/ 90
• #3-Creator (10-1) *K* [Key Horse]  196/ 89

*This order from top to bottom is a picture of the ‘race shape’ as how the race looks to run. Meaning that #20-Dancing Candy (Speed Horse) looks to run early with #18-Majesto (Rogue Squared Horse) and #5-Gun Runner (Rogue Squared Horse) both look to run mid pack, and #3-Creator (Key Horse) should be running from off-the-pace and making his move in the second half of the Kentucky Derby.

Past Derby Fields Versus This Year Field

Know how past Kentucky Derby Winners ran before their Derby race and how they stack up against this crop of 3-year-olds. Here is the Rogue Ratings computer program list of several notable past Kentucky Derby winners Velocity numbers before the Derby and their Velocity numbers coming out of the Derby:

RR’s Velocity # Going Into Derby – RR’s Velocity # Earned In The Derby

• 2008  Big Brown                       9 – 6
• 2012  I’ll Have Another            52 – 8
• 2014  California Chrome        42 – 16
• 2015  American Pharoah       41 – 10

*These numbers show the user (small sample size of four prior derby winners) of the Rogue Ratings computer program the type of velocity number required for a horse to run well and to win the Kentucky Derby from these recent past winners.

Note that this years crop of 3-year-olds look like a weaker group of horses than the four Derby winners presented above which also leads us to believe that this year’s race in particular appears to be a very wide open event.

The Rogue Handicapper’s Personal Thoughts On Derby 142

I believe the two key horses to use in this year’s Kentucky Derby are the #3-Creator *K* (10-1)  and #5-Gun Runner *R2* (10-1). In addition to being projected plays of the Rogue Ratings computer program these two horse also are moving up in their form-cycles and should give a good account of themselves on Derby Day minus any bad racing luck during the race.

I would bet these two horses #3 and #5 as key bets in exactas and trifectas placing them (keying) in the top two spots in your exactas, and placing them (keying) in the top three spots with (around) the other potential plays of #18 and #20. Now, I would recommend playing one or two more additional horses to use in and around your exacta and trifecta besides just the #18 and #20 horses.

My specific recommendation would be to use a couple of additional horses that have worked out well at Churchill Downs in the lead-up to the derby and or have run well in races that were run at Churchill Downs because the track surface at Churchill is a type of track surface that many horses either like or don’t.

As always, may the horse or horses be with you when they hit the wire!

The 142nd running of the Kentucky Oaks from Churchill Downs will run on Friday, May 6th, 2016 with a local post time of 5:49 eastern standard time. So, set your watches accordingly!

In this race for three-year-old fillies (the girls version of the derby) the Rogue Ratings™ computer program has projected six horses to be in the mix of this race for when they hit the wire which tells you that it’s a contentious group of contenders with really no clear standout.

The RogueHandicapper.com feels from a form-cycle up tick perspective these couple of horses have  consider which are: #4-Go Maggie Go *R2* (12/1), #9-Paola Queen *S* (30/1) and #13-Land Over Sea *R2* (5/1).

Now, looking at the race from a race shape perspective it sets up best for the Rogue Horse which is the #3-Lewis Bay (8-1) per the rogue ratings computer program as she fits the Early Speed/ Velocity Par the best for this race and the race looks to have a good amount of runners vying for the lead in this the 142nd running of the Kentucky Oaks.

Understand that the lower the Velocity number the better with a ‘0’ number being a perfect run race for a horse as it is efficiently using it’s energy from gate to wire. Simply put, it measures a horse’s projected motor efficiency!

For betting advice in this race or really any other I recommend boxing horses in the exacta (first two finishers), trifecta boxing (first three finishers) or keying one or two horses in the top two positions with the other selected/ projected plays from the rogue ratings computer program in your exacta or trifecta bets. I know sometimes this can become costly especially when you have as in this case six projected selections.

The RogueHandicapper.com feels the best course of action in this race with the abundance of six projected/ selected horses is to find one or two key horses to use in first and second position (key them) in your exacta or trifecta bets with the additional horses (putting them around your key horse or horses).

For new fans or novice horseplayers looking for an exact betting combination from the Rogue Handicapper® will get this,

• Use just one horse as a key or both horses as keys in your betting: #3-Lewis Bay (8-1) *R* and  #13-Land Over Sea (5/1) *R2* with the other projected selections from the Rogue Ratings™.
• Use the two key horses #3 & #13 in the first spot and second spot of your exactas and or trifectas.
• Your exacta tickets would look like this at a $1.00 bet: 3/4-8-9-11-13 & 4-8-9-11-13/ 3 =$10.00 total for both combinations.  13/ 3-4-8-9-11, 3-4-8-9-11/ 13 =$10.00 total for both combinations and if you are wanting to bet $2.00 you would just double the cost.
• Your trifecta tickets would look like this at a $1.00 bet: 3/4-8-9-11-13/ 4-8-9-11-13 & 4-8-9-11-13/ 3/ 4-8-9-11-13 =$40.00 total for both combinations and for 13/ 3-4-8-9-11/ 3-4-8-9-11 & 3-4-8-9-11/ 13/ 3-4-8-9-11 =$40.00 total for both combinations. If your looking to wager $2.00 you would just double the cost.
• In both cases for the exacta bet or trifecta wagers you are only putting the #3 and #13 horse in the first and second positions. Which means that you need the #3 or #13 to run first or second with the other horses needing to finish first or second around your key horses for you to win your exacta bet. And for you to win your trifecta bet you need the #3 or #13 to finish first or second with the other horses finishing around them in the top three positions.

And as always may the horse or horses be with you at the wire!