The Rogue Ratings Computer Projections for The Kentucky Oaks 2018
By Hal Wafer ׀ RogueHandicapper.com ׀ @RHandicapper
Las Vegas, NV – Tuesday, May 1, 2018 – The main event on this Friday, May 4th on the Churchill Downs card will be the Kentucky Oaks (Grade-1) which will be run at 1 1/8 miles. The 144th running of the Oaks will be the 11th race on Friday’s card and has a post time of 6:12 p.m. (eastern time listed) with a field of 14 fillies entered to run for a purse of $1 Million.
What is the Rogue Ratings Computer Program?
Two horses battling head to head as they near the wire. What separates race horses as to who will win or run better in today race? Rogue Ratings computer program does the heavy lifting for new or experienced horseplayers by the algorithm projecting the race shape and measuring the motor of a race horse as how it looks to perform today. Which is beyond the capability of a new, novice or experienced horseplayer to accomplish accurately and consistently.
What the Rogue Ratings computer program does for you very accurately is two things. First, it measures the motor of the horses through velocity numbers (lower the number the better). Secondly, it outlines the race shape with early speed numbers projections (higher the number mean more early speed) of which horses look to run early, mid and late in the Oaks or any race. The horses are listed in the order of how they are projected to run in the race on the rogue ratings program page. Both are sophisticated pieces of information not possessed by the public or public handicappers at large and even if they are aware of these concepts most certainly don’t know how to correctly calculate this information in a clear, and useful way!
The Rogue Ratings Computer Projections and Analysis for the 144th Kentucky Oaks G-1
Churchill Do
wns – Race #11
Kentucky Oaks-G1 – Purse $1 Million
Distance is 1 1/8 mile Dirt – Post time 6:12pm EST
Rogue Ratings Computer Projected Pace of The Kentucky Oaks
In this race the Rogue Ratings computer projections point out that we have five fillies that look to be going for the early lead that are all within one or two points of Early Speed, which points out to me that in this race the early fractions/ pace of the race looks to be fast early or fast in general.
ROGUE HANDICAPPER TIP: This type of Race Shape will usually aid horses that are in a stalking position (racing mid pack) or closing position (further off the pace) early in a race, because the fast-early fractions/ pace of the race will take its toll on the front runners as they are expending a lot of energy and reserve energy in the early stages of the race and that leaves them vulnerable late.
Rogue Ratings Computer Projected Plays in The Kentucky Oaks
The #3-Classy Act (15-1) is projected by the Rogue Ratings computer program as the *S* Speed Horse with an Early Speed Number of 96 in the race. Her Velocity Rating of 155 which compared to the other early runners that should be vying for the lead is clearly the best, but like I said before she may be a big disadvantage when the stretch is reached.
Now, the morning line favorite #14-Monomoy Girl (2-1) is projected as the *K* Key Horse has a Velocity Number of 153 which is also the lowest velocity number in the race and an Early Speed Number of 89 that puts her in a favorable race shape/ pace position off the what looks to be some fast-early fractions. This should allow her to close into that fast pace and use her reserve energy for the late running down the stretch.
The two other projected plays which are both *R2* Rogue Squared Horses these are outlier type of horses that the Rogue Ratings computer program points out to focus on in your wagering is the #4-Chocolate Martini (12-) that has a Velocity Number of 158 and an Early Speed Number of 92, and the other is #10-Midnight Bisou (5/2) as she has a Velocity Number of 155 and an Early Speed Number of 89. These two both look to be in an advantage position as it pertains to the race shape/ pace as how it looks to develop. Also, both have very good low velocity numbers like the morning line favorite to run well in this race.
Key Definitions for Rogue Ratings Projected Plays in The Kentucky Oaks
Velocity Number is calculated based on energy distribution (efficiency rating)/ form-cycle presented in a number.
Early Speed Number is a calculation projection of horse(s) likely to run early presented in a number.
Key Horse (K) is the best off the pace horse with a low velocity number.
Speed Horse (S) is the best early speed horse with a low velocity number.
Rogue Squared Horse (R2) is the second-best outlier horse with a low velocity number that matches a unique profile.
Exacta & Trifecta Betting Method
The misconception of the casual horse racing fan is that you need to be exact in making your exacta or trifecta bets to get to the cashier windows. This is just not so, and I will show you what I mean!
The best way to help increase your chances of winning on the exacta (picking the first two finishers) or trifecta (picking the first three finishers) is to select one or two key horses (to use as your main selections/ keys) to finish in the top two (exacta bet) three positions (trifecta bet) and to put the other horses you pick as additional contenders (boxed or crisscrossed, however you want to say it) around those key selections in each spot 1st, 2nd (in the exacta) or 1st, 2nd or 3rd (in the trifecta). This is really a time-tested and correct way to bet on an exacta or trifecta bet.
One, it makes you have an opinion in a race which will reduce the cost of your wagering tickets.
Two, you’re being able to spread your plays (combinations) among more horses that give you a better opportunity (percentage wise) to win an exacta or trifecta wager.
| The Rogue Handicapper® Mentored the first woman ever to win the 2017 NTRA/ NHC Last Chance Contest (Ellen Patrick) for over $22,000 and currently she is ranked in the top 121 contest players in the World. |
Three, and the ladies out there will love this, it’s a betting method that allows you not to have to be perfect in your bets with the exact order of finish in the exacta or trifecta, but still allows you to be able to win the exacta or trifecta and get to the cashier windows!
Recommended Exacta Wagering Tickets Outlined for The Kentucky Oaks
Exacta ticket(s) with two key betting horses (#10) and (#14) with three other contenders:
First key betting horse for exacta is #10-Midnight Bisou
$2.00 Exacta bet 10/ 3-4-14 = $6.00 cost
$2.00 Exacta bet 3-4-14/ 10 = $6.00 cost = Total is $12.00
Second key betting horse for exacta is #14-Monomoy Girl
$2.00 Exacta bet 14/ 3-4-10 = $6.00 cost
$2.00 Exacta bet 3-4-10/ 14 = $6.00 cost = Total is $12.00
$24.00 total cost of all four combinations of exacta tickets using both key wagering horses
Recommended Trifecta Wagering Tickets Outlined for The Kentucky Oaks
Trifecta ticket(s) with two key horses (#10) and (#14) with three other contenders:
First key betting horse in trifecta wager is #10-Midnight Bisou
$2.00 Trifecta bet 10/ 3-4-14/ 3-4-14 = $12.00 cost
$2.00 Trifecta bet 3-4-14/ 10/ 3-4-14 = $12.00 cost
$2.00 Trifecta bet 3-4-14/ 3-4-14/ 10 = $12.00 cost = Total is $36.00
Second key betting horse in trifecta is #14-Monomoy Girl
$2.00 Trifecta bet 14/ 3-4-10/ 3-4-10 = $12.00 cost
$2.00 Trifecta bet 3-4-10/ 14/ 3-4-10 = $12.00 cost
$2.00 Trifecta bet 3-4-10/ 3-4-10/ 14 = $12.00 cost = Total is $36.00
$72.00 total cost of all six combinations of trifecta tickets using both wagering key horses
As always, I wish you the best in your wagering and I’ll see you at the windows!
Rogue Handicapper Bio
Hal Wafer aka The Rogue Handicapper® created his website (RogueHandicapper.com) as a tool for new fans, novice and seasoned handicappers, tournament players and sophisticated gamblers on “How to Gain” an invaluable edge against their competition in the contest room (mentoring) or at the track and Cash More Tickets!
My background includes race & sports book operations, live pari-mutuel operations, hub operations, ADW operations, marketing,
player development, simulcasting, first sponsored tournament player by an ADW (BetAmerica.com), NTRA/ NHC player committee member (since 2011) and mentor (since 2017).
Also, I wrote one of the first books on handicapping contests titled “A Survey of Track Handicapping Contests-Rules-Suggestions-Potential” which was published in 1999 by Harness Tracks of America (by Stanley Bergstein) and was used as a guide by The Daily Racing Form and the NTRA for helping to create their National Handicapping Championship Tour.
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