From The Rail Blog

…Recap of the Preakness projections and results

By Hal Wafer ׀ RogueHandicapper.com ׀ @RHandicapper

Las Vegas, NV – May 22, 2018 – This past week I gave you two horses that the Rogue Ratings computer program like specifically which was Good Magic (finished 4^th) and Quip (finished 8th).

The Preakness Stakes 2018 Rogue Ratings Projections/ Results

This is a good time to still point out the effectiveness of the Rogue Ratings computer program even though we missed on both Good Magic *S* Speed Horse and or Quip *K* Key Horse as the winner of the 2018 Preakness Stakes. If you follow my analysis of how to correctly read the Rogue Ratings in my articles, which I hope you learn from and enjoy?

Simplifying Race Shape and Pace from the Rogue Ratings

First, see how the Race Shape/ Early Speed pace numbers are extremely accurate time and time again (the big picture) for showing you how a race looks to develop. As in The Kentucky Oaks, The Kentucky Derby and The Preakness Stakes clearly showed you!

Now, what I’m referring to is understanding that algorithms can only do so much for us as human beings and that the key to unlocking the treasure chest of being a winning handicapper or analyst is deciphering what the Velocity numbers and Early Speed numbers in the Rogue Ratings computer projections (even though most of the time it nails it precisely with the horses it highlights) are showing and educating you about in a horse race.

Additionally, the Rogue Ratings will only select one *S* Speed Horse (highlighted) for you and that is why it didn’t pick both of these horses. As you will never see two red or three colored horses’ listed as Speed Horses *S* within the Rogue Ratings computer program. But, as you learn to analyze horse racing in a more sophisticated way you will see that it’s very easy to come to the conclusion that both Justify and Bravazo were additional contenders in the race you needed to include in your wagering. Once you start to delve into the Rogue Ratings computer program it will take your handicapping to the next level of understanding.

The Preakness Stakes winner Justify was clearly a horse that had a very good Velocity number of 84, which is only a 4-point difference from Good Magic who possessed a Velocity number of 80 in the race. Also, both Justify and Good Magic had matching high Early Speed numbers in the race of 98. Now, go back to The Preakness article in which I outlined the potential Race Shape and how it was projected to be between Justify and Good Magic…this should help show you in just one way how the Rogue Ratings computer program is extremely effective!

Raise Your Turf-Knowledge by Using the Rogue Ratings Velocity Numbers

It’s been said, that the way to tell the class level of a race horse is to see if it has the “look of eagles” or put another way it has an undefinable quality that you can’t measure or put a finger on. Which I say isn’t what true class in a race horse really is. My turf-knowledge says to you, “It’s the ability of a race horse for a short distance to run faster within a small window of the race which results in taking the heart/ will out of it competitor and leaves it as an also-run”.

The Rogue Ratings computer program does this by giving you a quantifiable number (velocity number) to measure a horses motor coming into a race and does so very consistently and effectively better than anything I know of personally.

Remember, the racing form or other information sources that you may use or get is just that, information and nothing more like Egyptian hieroglyphs that needs to be deciphered. As you still need to know what factors to calculate and then how to accurately compute all this information in a timely manner.

As said by The Rogue Handicapper®, “Rogue Ratings computer program is all about taking the complexities out of thoroughbred handicapping and making it straightforward, and winnable”!

Understanding the Dance Between the Velocity and Early Speed Numbers

To take your knowledge to the next level with the Rogue Ratings computer program which my mentored clients have done and their results speak for themselves.

The key to seeing things with a clear lens is to balance the Velocity number and the Early Speed number a horse produces (like a scale) and comparing those numbers to the rest of the field and how the race shape looks to develop. This will clearly point out where that horse stands in relation to the whole field by measuring its motor and who looks to be in a more advantageous position because of pace/ race shape versus others that maybe at a disadvantage.

When the Light-Bulb Goes On

The more you use the Rogue Ratings computer projections the better you will see how easier it will become to analyzing a horse race as the sophisticated computer program does most of the heavy-lifting (more accurate measurement) or a horse and clearly lays out the race shape for you.

As you better see the consistency of the Rogue Ratings computer projections finish consistently first, second and third, and the watch the prices they pay…that’s when the light-bulb should go on!

Rogue Handicapper Bio

Hal Wafer aka The Rogue Handicapper® created his website (RogueHandicapper.com) as a tool for new fans, novice and seasoned handicappers, tournament players and sophisticated gamblers on “How to Gain” an invaluable edge against their competition in the contest room (mentoring) or at the track and Cash More Tickets!

 My background includes race & sports book operations, live pari-mutuel operations, hub operations, ADW operations, marketing,

player development, simulcasting, first sponsored tournament player by an ADW (BetAmerica.com), NTRA/ NHC player committee member (since 2011) and mentor (since 2017).

Also, I wrote one of the first books on handicapping contests titled “A Survey of Track Handicapping Contests-Rules-Suggestions-Potential” which was published in 1999 by Harness Tracks of America (by Stanley Bergstein) and was used as a guide by The Daily Racing Form and the NTRA for helping to create their National Handicapping Championship Tour.

The Rogue Ratings Computer Projections for The Kentucky Oaks 2018

By Hal Wafer ׀ RogueHandicapper.com ׀ @RHandicapper

Las Vegas, NV – Tuesday, May 1, 2018 – The main event on this Friday, May 4^th on the Churchill Downs card will be the Kentucky Oaks (Grade-1) which will be run at 1 1/8 miles. The 144^th running of the Oaks will be the 11^th race on Friday’s card and has a post time of 6:12 p.m. (eastern time listed) with a field of 14 fillies entered to run for a purse of $1 Million.

What is the Rogue Ratings Computer Program? 

Two horses battling head to head as they near the wire. What separates race horses as to who will win or run better in today race? Rogue Ratings computer program does the heavy lifting for new or experienced horseplayers by the algorithm projecting the race shape and measuring the motor of a race horse as how it looks to perform today. Which is beyond the capability of a new, novice or experienced horseplayer to accomplish accurately and consistently.

What the Rogue Ratings computer program does for you very accurately is two things. First, it measures the motor of the horses through velocity numbers (lower the number the better). Secondly, it outlines the race shape with early speed numbers projections (higher the number mean more early speed) of which horses look to run early, mid and late in the Oaks or any race. The horses are listed in the order of how they are projected to run in the race on the rogue ratings program page. Both are sophisticated pieces of information not possessed by the public or public handicappers at large and even if they are aware of these concepts most certainly don’t know how to correctly calculate this information in a clear, and useful way!

The Rogue Ratings Computer Projections and Analysis for the 144^th Kentucky Oaks G-1

Churchill Downs – Race #11 

Kentucky Oaks-G1 – Purse $1 Million

Distance is 1 1/8 mile Dirt – Post time 6:12pm EST

 Rogue Ratings Computer Projected Pace of The Kentucky Oaks

In this race the Rogue Ratings computer projections point out that we have five fillies that look to be going for the early lead that are all within one or two points of Early Speed, which points out to me that in this race the early fractions/ pace of the race looks to be fast early or fast in general.

ROGUE HANDICAPPER TIP: This type of Race Shape will usually aid horses that are in a stalking position (racing mid pack) or closing position (further off the pace) early in a race, because the fast-early fractions/ pace of the race will take its toll on the front runners as they are expending a lot of energy and reserve energy in the early stages of the race and that leaves them vulnerable late.

Rogue Ratings Computer Projected Plays in The Kentucky Oaks

The #3-Classy Act (15-1) is projected by the Rogue Ratings computer program as the *S* Speed Horse with an Early Speed Number of 96 in the race. Her Velocity Rating of 155 which compared to the other early runners that should be vying for the lead is clearly the best, but like I said before she may be a big disadvantage when the stretch is reached.

Now, the morning line favorite #14-Monomoy Girl (2-1) is projected as the *K* Key Horse has a Velocity Number of 153 which is also the lowest velocity number in the race and an Early Speed Number of 89 that puts her in a favorable race shape/ pace position off the what looks to be some fast-early fractions. This should allow her to close into that fast pace and use her reserve energy for the late running down the stretch.

The two other projected plays which are both *R2* Rogue Squared Horses these are outlier type of horses that the Rogue Ratings computer program points out to focus on in your wagering is the #4-Chocolate Martini (12-) that has a Velocity Number of 158 and an Early Speed Number of 92, and the other is #10-Midnight Bisou (5/2) as she has a Velocity Number of 155 and an Early Speed Number of 89. These two both look to be in an advantage position as it pertains to the race shape/ pace as how it looks to develop. Also, both have very good low velocity numbers like the morning line favorite to run well in this race.

Key Definitions for Rogue Ratings Projected Plays in The Kentucky Oaks

Velocity Number is calculated based on energy distribution (efficiency rating)/ form-cycle presented in a number.

Early Speed Number is a calculation projection of horse(s) likely to run early presented in a number.

Key Horse (K) is the best off the pace horse with a low velocity number.

Speed Horse (S) is the best early speed horse with a low velocity number.

Rogue Squared Horse (R2) is the second-best outlier horse with a low velocity number that matches a unique profile.

Exacta & Trifecta Betting Method

The misconception of the casual horse racing fan is that you need to be exact in making your exacta or trifecta bets to get to the cashier windows. This is just not so, and I will show you what I mean!

The best way to help increase your chances of winning on the exacta (picking the first two finishers) or trifecta (picking the first three finishers) is to select one or two key horses (to use as your main selections/ keys) to finish in the top two (exacta bet) three positions (trifecta bet) and to put the other horses you pick as additional contenders (boxed or crisscrossed, however you want to say it) around those key selections in each spot 1^st, 2^nd (in the exacta) or 1^st, 2^nd or 3^rd (in the trifecta). This is really a time-tested and correct way to bet on an exacta or trifecta bet.

One, it makes you have an opinion in a race which will reduce the cost of your wagering tickets.

Two, you’re being able to spread your plays (combinations) among more horses that give you a better opportunity (percentage wise) to win an exacta or trifecta wager.

Three, and the ladies out there will love this, it’s a betting method that allows you not to have to be perfect in your bets with the exact order of finish in the exacta or trifecta, but still allows you to be able to win the exacta or trifecta and get to the cashier windows!

Recommended Exacta Wagering Tickets Outlined for The Kentucky Oaks

Exacta ticket(s) with two key betting horses (#10) and (#14) with three other contenders:

First key betting horse for exacta is #10-Midnight Bisou

$2.00 Exacta bet 10/ 3-4-14 = $6.00 cost

$2.00 Exacta bet 3-4-14/ 10 = $6.00 cost = Total is $12.00

Second key betting horse for exacta is #14-Monomoy Girl

$2.00 Exacta bet 14/ 3-4-10 = $6.00 cost

$2.00 Exacta bet 3-4-10/ 14 = $6.00 cost = Total is $12.00

$24.00 total cost of all four combinations of exacta tickets using both key wagering horses

Recommended Trifecta Wagering Tickets Outlined for The Kentucky Oaks

Trifecta ticket(s) with two key horses (#10) and (#14) with three other contenders:

First key betting horse in trifecta wager is #10-Midnight Bisou

$2.00 Trifecta bet 10/ 3-4-14/ 3-4-14 = $12.00 cost

$2.00 Trifecta bet 3-4-14/ 10/ 3-4-14 = $12.00 cost

$2.00 Trifecta bet 3-4-14/ 3-4-14/ 10 = $12.00 cost = Total is $36.00

Second key betting horse in trifecta is #14-Monomoy Girl

$2.00 Trifecta bet 14/ 3-4-10/ 3-4-10 = $12.00 cost

$2.00 Trifecta bet 3-4-10/ 14/ 3-4-10 = $12.00 cost

$2.00 Trifecta bet 3-4-10/ 3-4-10/ 14 = $12.00 cost = Total is $36.00

$72.00 total cost of all six combinations of trifecta tickets using both wagering key horses

As always, I wish you the best in your wagering and I’ll see you at the windows!

Rogue Handicapper Bio

Hal Wafer aka The Rogue Handicapper® created his website (RogueHandicapper.com) as a tool for new fans, novice and seasoned handicappers, tournament players and sophisticated gamblers on “How to Gain” an invaluable edge against their competition in the contest room (mentoring) or at the track and Cash More Tickets!

My background includes race & sports book operations, live pari-mutuel operations, hub operations, ADW operations, marketing,

player development, simulcasting, first sponsored tournament player by an ADW (BetAmerica.com), NTRA/ NHC player committee member (since 2011) and mentor (since 2017).

Also, I wrote one of the first books on handicapping contests titled “A Survey of Track Handicapping Contests-Rules-Suggestions-Potential” which was published in 1999 by Harness Tracks of America (by Stanley Bergstein) and was used as a guide by The Daily Racing Form and the NTRA for helping to create their National Handicapping Championship Tour.

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