From The Rail Blog

The solid fractions set during the running of the 148th Belmont Stakes yesterday and the big late closing move of Lani to finish third helped to once again prove the effectiveness of the Rogue Ratings™ computer program for giving the new fan, novice horseplayer or even the seasoned gambler a big leg up on the competition at the track.

These actual early fractions set in the 148th Belmont Stakes of 1/4 in 24 and the 1/2 in 48.2, which did help to set up the Belmont Stakes for a closer (off the pace horse) like #10-Lani to use his reserve energy to close in the stretch drive as the early front runners were used too much in the early going of the race and had little to nothing left for the stretch drive.

Remember, what the Rogue Handicapper® analysis of the Rogue Ratings™ computer program for the 148th Belmont Stakes was yesterday?

Well, here is what the Rogue Handicapper® analysis of the Rogue Ratings™ said again, which was yesterday:

Number #5-Stradivari and #11-Exaggerator hold a considerably advantage over the rest of the field on a Velocity # stand point which may very well be too much for the other horses to overcome, but the disadvantage to these two horse and others that look to be on the early pace of this race is that if the fractions do become too fast and contested between a few of these horse then it would definitely play into the hands and set-up nicely for #3-Cherry Wine and #10-Lani!

Also, know that because we can’t predict every race correct all the time must be chalked up to the factor know as  “racing luck” (horse stumbling, jockey misjudging the pace and 101 other things that can happen in a race), which is a strong factor in racing and does exert it’s influence on many if not most races and the best we are looking for in betting the horses and being a winning horseplayer is a program that consistently shows us (1) how a race looks to develop and (2) which horses to bet on and the Rogue Ratings™ computer program does this consistently!

The Rogue Ratings™ computer program does quickly summarize the Race Shape of any race to help you understand what horses look to run early and if there is a good possibility of a contested early pace or not that lets you know specifically what type of Race Shape that looks to develop in any race.

The Rogue Ratings computer program has three basic and simple types of Race Shapes scenarios to analyze how the race looks to develop and which horse or horses look to be at advantage:

1. Lone Speed Horse (Race Shape) a single horse controlling the pace of the race (an early speed difference) that favors the horse which is said to be “loose on the lead” as this type of Race Shape helps to save the horses’ reserve energy for the stretch drive.
2. Multiple Speed Horses (Race Shape) usually is when two, three or more horses are vying for the early lead in a race which presents a Race Shape that sets up to be run with fast or solid early fractions that hurts these early runners chances as they are not allowed to settle in during the early part of the race and are required to use more energy early which favors the off the pace horse such as the Rogue Horse, R2 Horse or Key Horses. As these types of projected plays are usually reserved early in the race and can better use their reserve energy for their mid-race or late run.
3. Normal (Race Shape) is where the pace of the race really doesn’t look to set up for any particular Race Shape scenario or to favor any particular horse as the race looks to be run with honest early fractions, which should result in the race coming down to who is the better horse or horses in the race based on the Rogue Ratings™ projected selections, which are in listed colors and symbols.

The final question is which horse do you play? And that answer is very easy to know when you use the Rogue Ratings™ computer program as it spells it all out for you in simple highlighted colors and symbols as to which horses to play.

Here is a key box for understanding these horses:

The world’s most famous horse race The Kentucky Derby 142 at Churchill Downs opens it’s starting gate on Sat, May 7th at 6:34pm est. Set your watches accordingly!

New Fan, Novice Horseplayers Allowed To Win Now

The unique Rogue Ratings computer program projections allow the new fan or novice horseplayers to learn and win at betting on the ponies now, without having to spend years or decades to do it as was required in the past!

As the ratings are presented in a simple outline to better understand a race and at the same time gives the new horseplayer sophisticated calculations that puts in their hands a level of proficiency that is far beyond their actual years of study and  mastery, which now allows the new bettors to win money betting the horses right out of the gate!

Rogue Ratings Projected Derby 142 Plays

Rogue Ratings projections point to these four (4) horses to run well in the Derby and that one of them to hit the finish-line first:

RR’s Kentucky Derby Pars – RR’s Velocity Par 70/ Early Speed Par 87 (avg rogue ratings #’s of winners)

• #20-Dancing Candy (15-1) *S* [Speed Horse]  157/ 101
• #18-Majesto (30-1) *R2* [Rogue Squared Horse]  201/ 91
• #5-Gun Runner (10-1) *R2* [Rogue Squared Horse]  198/ 90
• #3-Creator (10-1) *K* [Key Horse]  196/ 89

*This order from top to bottom is a picture of the ‘race shape’ as how the race looks to run. Meaning that #20-Dancing Candy (Speed Horse) looks to run early with #18-Majesto (Rogue Squared Horse) and #5-Gun Runner (Rogue Squared Horse) both look to run mid pack, and #3-Creator (Key Horse) should be running from off-the-pace and making his move in the second half of the Kentucky Derby.

Past Derby Fields Versus This Year Field

Know how past Kentucky Derby Winners ran before their Derby race and how they stack up against this crop of 3-year-olds. Here is the Rogue Ratings computer program list of several notable past Kentucky Derby winners Velocity numbers before the Derby and their Velocity numbers coming out of the Derby:

RR’s Velocity # Going Into Derby – RR’s Velocity # Earned In The Derby

• 2008  Big Brown                       9 – 6
• 2012  I’ll Have Another            52 – 8
• 2014  California Chrome        42 – 16
• 2015  American Pharoah       41 – 10

*These numbers show the user (small sample size of four prior derby winners) of the Rogue Ratings computer program the type of velocity number required for a horse to run well and to win the Kentucky Derby from these recent past winners.

Note that this years crop of 3-year-olds look like a weaker group of horses than the four Derby winners presented above which also leads us to believe that this year’s race in particular appears to be a very wide open event.

The Rogue Handicapper’s Personal Thoughts On Derby 142

I believe the two key horses to use in this year’s Kentucky Derby are the #3-Creator *K* (10-1)  and #5-Gun Runner *R2* (10-1). In addition to being projected plays of the Rogue Ratings computer program these two horse also are moving up in their form-cycles and should give a good account of themselves on Derby Day minus any bad racing luck during the race.

I would bet these two horses #3 and #5 as key bets in exactas and trifectas placing them (keying) in the top two spots in your exactas, and placing them (keying) in the top three spots with (around) the other potential plays of #18 and #20. Now, I would recommend playing one or two more additional horses to use in and around your exacta and trifecta besides just the #18 and #20 horses.

My specific recommendation would be to use a couple of additional horses that have worked out well at Churchill Downs in the lead-up to the derby and or have run well in races that were run at Churchill Downs because the track surface at Churchill is a type of track surface that many horses either like or don’t.

As always, may the horse or horses be with you when they hit the wire!