By Hal Wafer ׀ RogueHandicapper.com ׀ @RHandicapper
Las Vegas, NV – May 4, 2018 – Here we are again, and not to brag about last years’ Kentucky Derby in which the rogue ratings computer projections did give us Always Dreaming out of only two potential key horses from a full field of 20 horses to use in our wagering! On top of that, the rogue ratings pointed out Battle of Midway as one of the best longshots in the race to use in our wagering at 37-1 and he finished third.
The 144th Kentucky Derby takes place at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky and has a purse of $2 Million which will be run at the distance of 1 ¼ mile on the dirt. The historic race will be race #12 on the Saturday, May 5, 2018 Churchill Downs card and you can watch it all on NBC with a listed post time of 6:46 p.m. (eastern time).
Rogue Handicapper® Background
Now for some background about myself and the rogue ratings. I created and use the rogue ratings computer program personally to bet on track and to compete on the highest-level in horse racing handicapping tournaments (NTRA/ NHC Tour & BCBC) against the best handicappers in the World for over ten years, and my success in speaks for its self. Go to my website RogueHandicapper.com to learn more about my documented tournament results and the success of how my Rogue for Hire Mentoring Program that has raised multiple contest players game to new heights. This can be found at the tournament results link located at the top of the home page.
Rogue Ratings Computer Projections for the 144th Kentucky Derby G-1
Rogue Ratings Computer Projected Pace of The Kentucky Derby
In this year’s edition of the 144th Kentucky Derby the Rogue Ratings computer program projects an average/ honest or slightly fast pace to take shape as we have the #3 Promises Fulfilled who looks to get the lead with an Early Speed number of #101 and an average Velocity number of #203 which is higher than the par for this event (not necessarily a good thing). He looks to only have one other horse initially battling him for the lead which is the #13 Bravazo with an Early Speed number of #97.
ROGUE HANDICAPPER TIP: This type of Race Shape will usually aid the best horses that are in the race be it the front-runners (early leaders), stalkers (mid pack) or closers (more off the pace) because as the efficiency of the rogue ratings velocity numbers (lower the better) point out which horses are primed to more efficiently put their best foot forward.
In this race the rogue ratings projected plays clearly point out which horses are more efficient in using their reserve energy (via the projected velocity numbers) when called upon by the jockey. Simply put, horses that are termed classier horses (higher quality runners) are more efficient using their reserve energy, but also have more of it than average horses. For example; a classier horse is basically able to take the run out of another horse of lesser class by running very fast in a stage (small fraction) of the race. This short battle will burnout the less classier horse leaving it as an also ran in the race to its classier rival!
The Rogue Ratings Computer Projections/ Analysis for the 144th Kentucky Derby
The #3 Promises Fulfilled (30-1) is the *S* Speed Horse in the race and looks to be up on the front end of the race that really should be an honest pace to run with for this front runner. In my opinion his only chance is to milk (slow it down) the pace on the front end and try to put the other jockeys to sleep and try and steal the race, but I only see this one perhaps hanging on to third or fourth at best if he is allowed to run freely on the front-end.
Now, in this years Kentucky Derby the Rogue Ratings computer projections points out three possible winners out of the 20 horses that will go into the gate this Saturday that you should focus on. They are the #9-Hofburg (20-1) *R2* Rogue Squared Horse, #7-Justify (3-1) *R* Rogue Horse and the #11-Bolt d’Oro (8-1) *K* Key Horse. Last year, the Rogue Ratings projected only two horses to be the winner of the derby (one was Always Dreaming) but, this year we have three horses that the algorithm projects to win the run for the roses!
Key Definitions for The Rogue Ratings Projected Plays in The Kentucky Derby
Velocity Number is calculated based on energy distribution (efficiency rating)/ form-cycle presented in a number.
Early Speed Number is a calculation projection of horse(s) likely to run early presented in a number.
Speed Horse (S) is the best early speed horse with a low velocity number.
Rogue Squared Horse (R2) is the second-best outlier horse with a low velocity number that matches a unique profile.
Rogue Horse (R) is the best outlier horse with the lowest velocity number.
Key Horse (K) is the best off the pace horse with a low velocity number.
Derby Weather Notes
As always be sure to check what the weather conditions should be on the day of the Kentucky Derby and if all else fails look up to the sky to know for sure.
Rogue Handicapper® Trifecta & Superfecta Betting Tips for the Derby
Trifecta Betting Method
The misconception of the casual horse racing fan is that you need to be exact in making your trifecta bets to get to the cashier windows. This is just not so, and I will show you what I mean!
The best way to help increase your chances of winning on the trifecta (picking the first three finishers in exact order) is to select one or two key horses (to use as your main selections/ keys) to finish in the top three positions of the trifecta and to put the other horses you pick as additional contenders (boxed or crisscrossed) around those key selections in each spot (1st, 2nd and 3rd). This is really a time-tested and correct way to bet on a trifecta bet.
One, it makes you have an opinion in a race which will reduce the cost of your wagering tickets. Two, you’re being able to spread your plays (combinations) among more horses that give you a better opportunity (percentage wise) to win in a trifecta.
Three, and the ladies out there will love this…It’s a betting method that allows you not to have to be perfect in your bets with the exact order of finish in the trifecta, but still allows you to be able to win in the trifecta and get to the cashier windows!
Final Understanding on this Betting/ Wagering Method
So, this way you have your additional horses crisscrossed or partly wheeled around your key horse(s) and if one of your key horses run 1st, 2nd or 3rd and two of your other contenders run in any one of the top three spots (with no opinion on your part where, just as long as they get there) you will win your trifecta wager…this is a very clever wagering strategy and I hope you will agree?
Recommended Trifecta Wagering Tickets Outlined for The Kentucky Derby
Trifecta ticket(s) with three key betting horses (#7), (#9) and (#11) with five other contenders:
$1.00 Trifecta bet 7 / 3-9-11-? -? / 3-9-11-? -? =$20.00 cost
$1.00 Trifecta bet 3-9-11-? -? / 7 / 3-9-11-? -? =$20.00 cost
$1.00 Trifecta bet 3-9-11-? -? / 6–9-11-? -? / 7 =$20.00 cost
$60.00 is the total cost of all three trifecta tickets using this one key horse (#7) in all three spots of the trifecta. Using the other two key betting horses (#9) and (#11) would bring the total to $180 ($60.00 x 3 =$180.00).
The (?) symbol you see above in the trifecta combinations and for the superfecta combinations below is for you to add other horse(s) and if you’re unsure I’ve listed three possible plays to help you pick from. I would recommend choosing one, two or all three horses from the following three to include as your fourth. fifth or even six horses as extra contenders to use in your exotic combinations: #5-Audible (8-1), #6-Good Magic (12-1) or #17-Solomini (30-1). Have fun and a little gamble as last year in 2017 the trifecta paid $8,207.20 for a $2.00 bet or a $1.00 wager got you half that amount!
Superfecta Betting Method
When betting the superfecta, you can just adjust the betting strategy that I’ve outlined for you below. For example, choosing to use only one key horse in all four spots or if you do use two key horses then I would recommend limiting the number of spots that you use them (putting them in the top two spots first or second) as this will help reduce the cost of your superfecta ticket. Please note, that adding additional spots to bet your key horse(s) will greatly increase the cost of your superfecta ticket.
But, if you have a gamble in you just remember what the payout was in the 2005 Derby that saw an $864,000 superfecta when 50-1 Giacomo won with a 72-1 shot finishing second and as recently as last year in 2017 the superfecta paid $75,974.50 for $1.00…ah, decision, decision!
Superfecta ticket(s) with three key betting horses (#7), (#9) and (#11) with five other contenders:
$1.00 Superfecta bet 7/ 3-9-11-? -? / 3-9-11-? -? /3-9-11-? -? =$60.00 cost
$1.00 Superfecta bet 3-9-11-? -? / 7/ 3-9-11-? -? / 3-9-11-? -? =$60.00 cost
$120.00 total cost of using one key horse in two spots of the Superfecta with five other contenders around it
By added each additional key horse (#7, #9, #11) as your next key betting horse in your Superfecta tickets will bring the cost up to another $120.00 per the two spots. Using two different betting keys in your Superfecta combinations will bring the cost to $240.00 and using three key horses will bring the cost to $360.00. I know, this is a good size wager but I’m just pointing out a strategy as to what it looks like and how much this type of wager costs to realistically hit it. Now, I hope it makes you get creative in your thought process as to additional ways to attach this wager.
I hope this betting outline and strategy helps you on Derby Day and every day you bet at the track. As always may the Rogue Ratings velocity number be with you and I’ll see you at the windows!
What is the Rogue Ratings Computer Program?
Two horses battling head to head as they near the wire. What separates race horses as to who will win or run better in today race? Rogue Ratings computer program does the heavy lifting for new or experienced horseplayers by the algorithm projecting the race shape and measuring the motor of a race horse as how it looks to perform today. Which is beyond the capability of a new, novice or experienced horseplayer to accomplish accurately and consistently.
What the Rogue Ratings computer program does for you very accurately is two things. First, it measures the motor of the horses through velocity numbers (lower the number the better). Secondly, it outlines the race shape with early speed numbers projections (higher the number mean more early speed) of which horses look to run early, mid and late in the Derby or any race. The horses are listed in the order of how they are projected to run in the race on the rogue ratings program page. Both are sophisticated pieces of information not possessed by the public or public handicappers at large and even if they are aware of these concepts they certainly don’t know how to correctly calculate this information in a clear, and useful way!
What Are Your Expectations for Betting and Winning on The Derby?
Are you looking to bet a little to win a lot? Do you want to bet a good amount of money to make a score? Or do you want to have bragging rights over your friends for the whole year that you picked the winner and they didn’t?
In my opinion, you should know what your expectations are for betting on the Derby. This will help make clearer for you best way you should bet the race to get the most fun out of it and profit!
The Derby Is Your Opportunity to Make A Score
My personal attack plan is to bet on the trifecta (picking the top three in order of finish) and superfecta (picking the top four in order of finish) in the Kentucky Derby. All the ingredients for making a nice “score” in one race present itself in this famous horse race. As I always say, “Go big or go home”, but that’s just my mindset. Just last year, the Trifecta paid $8,297.20 for a $1 bet…It’s something for you to think about!
Starting from the big field of horses (20 in gate usually) to extra-large betting amounts (not normally found daily at the track) of public money (uninformed bettors) being bet on the Derby all adds up to a betting event you should wager on.
Rogue Handicapper Bio
Hal Wafer aka The Rogue Handicapper® created his website (RogueHandicapper.com) as a tool for new fans, novice and seasoned handicappers, tournament players and sophisticated gamblers on “How to Gain” an invaluable edge against their competition in the contest room (mentoring) or at the track and Cash More Tickets!
My background includes race & sports book operations, live pari-mutuel operations, hub operations, ADW operations, marketing, player development, simulcasting, first sponsored tournament player by an ADW (BetAmerica.com), NTRA/ NHC player committee member (since 2011) and mentor (since 2017).
Also, I wrote one of the first books on handicapping contests titled “A Survey of Track Handicapping Contests-Rules-Suggestions-Potential” which was published in 1999 by Harness Tracks of America (by Stanley Bergstein) and was used as a guide by The Daily Racing Form and the NTRA for helping to create their National Handicapping Championship Tour.
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